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Estimation of Zika virus prevalence by appearance of microcephaly

SAAD-ROY, C M
van den DRIESSCHE, P
MA, J L
December 2016

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There currently is a severe Zika Virus (ZIKV) epidemic in Brazil and other South American countries. Due to international travel, this poses severe public health risk of ZIKV importation to other countries. We estimate the prevalence of ZIKV in an import region by the time a microcephaly case is detected, since microcephaly is presently the most significant indication of ZIKV presence. A mathematical model to describe ZIKV spread from a source region to an import region was established. This model incorporates both vector transmission (between humans and mosquitoes) and sexual transmission (from males to females). Account was taken of population structure through a contact network for sexually active individuals. Parameter values of the model are either taken from the literature or estimated from travel data

BMC Infectious Diseases (2016) 16:754 DOI 10.1186/s12879-016-2076-z

Participatory monitoring and evaluation

February 1988

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One of the PLA Notes special editions, includes articles on: tracking change together; monitoring and evaluating in the Nepal-UK Community Forest Project; particpatory self-evaluation of World Neighbors, Burkino Faso; institutional issues for monitoring local development in Ecuador; growing from the grassroots: building participatory planning, monitoring and evaluation methods in PARC; ELF - 3 year impact evaluation: experiences and insights; Participatory monitoring and evaluation in flood proofing pilot project, CARE-Bangladesh

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