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Estimation of Zika virus prevalence by appearance of microcephaly

SAAD-ROY, C M
van den DRIESSCHE, P
MA, J L
December 2016

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There currently is a severe Zika Virus (ZIKV) epidemic in Brazil and other South American countries. Due to international travel, this poses severe public health risk of ZIKV importation to other countries. We estimate the prevalence of ZIKV in an import region by the time a microcephaly case is detected, since microcephaly is presently the most significant indication of ZIKV presence. A mathematical model to describe ZIKV spread from a source region to an import region was established. This model incorporates both vector transmission (between humans and mosquitoes) and sexual transmission (from males to females). Account was taken of population structure through a contact network for sexually active individuals. Parameter values of the model are either taken from the literature or estimated from travel data

BMC Infectious Diseases (2016) 16:754 DOI 10.1186/s12879-016-2076-z

Zika: the origin and spread of a mosquito-borne virus

KINDHAUSER, Mary Kay
ALLEN Tomas
FRANK Veronika
SANTHANAA Ravi Shankar
DYE Christopher
September 2016

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The temporal and geographical distribution of Zika virus infection and associated neurological disorders, from 1947 to 1 February 2016, when Zika became a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) are described following an extensive literature search. During this period a total of 74 countries and territories had reported human Zika virus infections. The timeline in this paper charts the discovery of the virus (1947), its isolation from mosquitos (1948), the first human infection (1952), the initial spread of infection from Asia to a Pacific island (2007), the first known instance of sexual transmission (2008), reports of Guillain-Barré syndrome (2014) and microcephaly (2015) linked to Zika infections and the first appearance of Zika in the Americas (from 2015). The paper concludes that the Zika virus infection in humans appears to have changed in character as its geographical range has expanded from equatorial Africa and Asia. The change is from an endemic, mosquito-borne infection causing mild illness to one that can cause large outbreaks linked with neurological sequelae and congenital abnormalities

 

Spatial patterns of leprosy in an urban area of central Brazil

MARTELLI, C M T
et al
1995

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Reported is the spatial variation of leprosy in an urban area of Brazil and its correlation with socioeconomic indicators. From November 1991 to October 1992 a total of 752 newly diagnosed leprosy patients who were attending all outpatient clinics in Golania city, central Brazil, were indentified. A database of leprosy cases was set up linking patients' addresses to 64 urban districts. Leprosy cases were detected in 86 of the districts and three risk strata were identified. The highest risk area for leprosy was in the outskirts of the city and detection rates increased on moving from more developed to poorer areas. The risk of detecting leprosy cases was 5.3-fold greater (95CL: 3.8-7.4) in the outskirst of the town than in the central zone.
Discussed are the methodological issues related to leprosy case ascertainment, completeness and reliability of information, and the interpretation of the spatial distribution of leprosy per unti area. High lighted also are the lack of deprosy control activities in primary health care units and the usefulness of geographical analysis in planning health services.

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